The Oracle of Oslo

We cover the most covered shipping money manager, a man who doesn't shy from the press or publicity, who always seems to be in front of market moves, Joakim Hannisdahl, the Oracle of Oslo

Almost as if he has a weekly column on Tradewinds, there is always an update on Joakim Hannisdahl. We have enjoyed watching the rise of Joakim, it has been fun, filled with some drama (remember the lawsuit), and generally insightful.

We think he does a good job covering the sector and has made some great calls. We are pro shipping funds, and even pro some self promotion. But a few things recently caught our attention and we just like to call balls and strikes, which is an American reference (we learned) from the game of baseball. It translates to calling things accurately as you see them.

What caught our attention was the recent article on April 5th in Tradewinds where Joakim said that he was short Euronav. It was clearly placed as an attention grabbing tag-line given the timing of the article.

The article states that he had been short Euronav in March ahead of the vote, the stock was trading around $17.70/80. The stock then fell off a cliff following the vote, down to the $14.60s, which would have been a 17%+ gain for the fund. However, at the time of publication, it was stated as a 6% gain as the stock had rebounded abruptly and they apparently did not cover.

Before the ink dried on the Tradewinds article, he was out with a weekly update on his performance - short position in Euronav had been closed out.

Were they waiting for the Tradewinds article to publish? We reached out to Gary Dixon to find out more information on the timing of the article and his impression on the timing of the trades. We did not receive a reply in time for publication.

The Oracle of Oslo also does not shy away from marketing the funds performance, which has been pretty solid. In the Tradewinds article, the common theme of compounding was used, which is not industry standard (it may even be banned by the SEC, we know Oslo is a bit of the wild west) but shows higher returns.

As an example, in the latest weekly update the fund is up 29% since inception last July, but is marketed as a 37% CAGR.

So how is he doing? Well +29% since last July is nothing to scoff at. If you put up those numbers for 15 years you would be a legend.

But, shipping has been on a tear. If you just threw a dart at some of the top 20 shipping names only 5/20 are below that (containers). The average of this random but broad assortment is +50%. If you just stuck to tankers and dry-bulk you are closer to 60%+. If you were wise to avoid or exit containers, even higher (ZIM, MAERSK are negative).

We look forward to following the progress from here - his team provides good insights on the market and the frequent Suez Canal updates have been helpful.

And it won’t be hard to follow, there will always be an update hot off the press.